Odds Variance Scorecard — Q1 2026
312 UK races, January–March 2026 · 6 bookmakers · 12 tracks · Editor: Max Yao · CC-BY-4.0
Mean variance = average difference between 08:00 morning price and official SP. Higher variance = morning prices diverge more from SP = BOG has greater value.
The data latency insight (Gate 20)
Racing Post updates SP data within 5 minutes of race completion. Some aggregators using the Racing Post API lag 15–45 minutes. This is never disclosed on pricing pages. If you're building automated form analysis, test your feed latency live during a race meeting before committing.
| Bookmaker | Track | Mean variance | Races (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | Ascot | 0.43 | 28 |
| Betfair BSP | Ascot | 0.61 | 28 |
| Paddy Power | Ascot | 0.38 | 28 |
| Sky Bet | Ascot | 0.35 | 28 |
| William Hill | Ascot | 0.32 | 28 |
| Bet365 | York | 0.51 | 24 |
| Betfair BSP | York | 0.68 | 24 |
| Paddy Power | York | 0.42 | 24 |
How to read this table
A mean variance of 0.43 means the bookmaker's 08:00 price averaged 43p per £1 different from SP across the sample. Higher variance is better for BOG punters (your morning price diverges more from SP, so BOG applies more often and with greater benefit).
Key findings — Q1 2026
- Betfair BSP consistently showed the highest variance vs official SP — because BSP is exchange-cleared and reflects crowd intelligence, while bookmaker morning prices lag.
- Bet365 morning prices diverged more from SP than Sky Bet or William Hill — suggesting they price more aggressively at 08:00.
- Track matters: York showed higher variance than Ascot, likely due to field size and competitive handicaps.
Methodology
Morning prices recorded at 08:00–09:00 on race day. SP sourced from Press Association returns. All UK flat and jumps races included. No minimum SP filter. Outliers (SP above 100/1) excluded from mean. Full methodology: methodology page.